Races For Senate And House In Five Traditional Republican States Will Be Close: Poll

Races for the Senate and House in five key traditionally Republican-leaning states will be close as Donald Trump's approval ratings continue to sink, a new poll has shown.

In the Senate races, the Democrat candidate edges out the Republican by a margin of 50 percent to 43 percent in Alaska, 49 percent to 46 percent in Ohio, 51 percent to 45 percent in Texas, a New York Times/Siena survey conducted between September 21st and October 1st showed.

The Texas race is a particularly high-profile one, as a victory for Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton would mark the first time a Texas Democrat has won election to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen's victory in 1988.

In Kansas, the Republican and Democrat candidates are tied on 45 percent, whereas in Iowa the Republican candidate maintains a narrow lead of 48 percent compared to the Democrat's 47.

The congressional polls showed a more complicated picture, with Republican candidates ahead by three points in Iowa and 5 points in Kansas respectively. In both Texas and Ohio, the Democrat candidates lead the Republicans by 48 percent to 47 percent.

All five states surveyed voted for Republican President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, which the poll reflects.

The proportion of respondents who voted for Trump in 2024, which ranges from 45 percent in Alaska to 49 percent in Iowa and Kansas, is much higher than the proportion who voted for 2024 Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris, which ranges from 36 percent in Alaska to 41 percent in Ohio.

However, the president's approval ratings have been sinking, even in more Republican-leaning areas.

According to the poll, between 48 percent and 51 percent of voters in all five states strongly disapprove of the way that Trump is handling the job of president. In contrast, Trump's highest "strong approval" score in the five states was recorded in Alaska (29 percent) and his lowest came in Ohio (21 percent).

This disapproval appears to extend to traditional Republican voters, as more voters identified themselves as Republicans than Democrats in all five states, reflecting the states' historically conservative ideological lean.

The economy featured highest on voters' priorities, with 21 percent of respondents citing it as the issue most important in deciding which candidates to back. It is perhaps unsurprising that this prioritization of economic issues is coinciding with a fall in support for Trump, as recent polls have also shown that Trump's approval ratings on the economy are lower than his predecessor President Joe Biden's were.