Experts Fear 'fourth Wave' As Mystery Cases Emerge

Experts in respiratory diseases and public health say they're worried that Hong Kong could soon see a fourth wave of Covid-19 cases, as infections with no clear source continue to emerge at a time when social distancing rules have been eased.

Concerns have been raised after a decision on Sunday to quarantine staff and patrons of a bar called China Secret in Tsim Sha Tsui. A 22-year-old student who was diagnosed on Saturday had visited the bar, while a Thai visitor who tested positive last week is also thought to have been there.

Benjamin Cowling, a professor of public health at the University of Hong Kong, said people in the SAR should enjoy the relative calm of recent days while they could.

He said the fact that cases with no known source were still being found indicated that there were more unidentified infections in the community, at a time when social distancing rules are being eased.

"There's opportunity for infection to spread, and sooner or later the virus will take one of those opportunities," he told RTHK's Backchat programme.

"So I think fairly soon we are going to see some outbreaks and maybe that's going to develop into our fourth wave. By mid-to-late October it will be clear. I hope not, but that's my gut feeling."

Respiratory disease expert Leung Chi-chiu said the case of the bar showed that there were gaps in the government's monitoring and tracing work. He urged the administration to step up the monitoring of social distancing in newly-reopened premises.

He said that despite government figures showing the number of inspections carried out, "the situation on the ground may not be as optimal as we hoped."

"We are allowing these premises to reopen under specific conditions. We need to also ensure that these conditions are being fully met, otherwise that may affect the control of the disease and the community may have to pay a very huge cost for that."

However Cowling said he was confused by one social distancing measure that remains in force: the closure of the SAR's gazetted beaches. He noted that some swimmers were exercising on non-gazette beaches that lacked shark nets.

"It's much safer to go to a beach than to go to a bar ... the mind boggles about why beaches wouldn't be safe at this point when almost everything else is open. A beach is probably one of the safest places in Hong Kong to avoid Covid."

Similarly, a professor advising the government on its anti-epidemic efforts also expressed concerns that recent infections with unknown sources would evolve into a fourth wave of a Covid-19 outbreak.

Professor David Hui from the Chinese University said authorities need to handle the current situation carefully, especially when social distancing measures have recently been relaxed.

Hui also expressed concerns that the Tsim Sha Tsui bar may have violated anti-epidemic regulations by seating more than two people per table on the night the transmission supposedly happened, after it emerged that the bar, which has just seven tables, served 28 customers at a time.